Greek Super League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Stats
The Super League is the top tier of Greek professional football. This page explains its two-phase format, gives a few general statistics from 2025-26 and shows how Prediction AI analyses a match in the competition. It deliberately contains no table or fixture list: that data changes every matchday, so check the official sources.
Competition format, 2026-27 season
- Clubs: 14 clubs in 2026-27, 12 of them staying up from the previous season and 2 promoted from Super League 2.
- Regular season: 26 matchdays, in two rounds of 13, with each club playing the other 13 at home and away.
- Championship play-offs: the top 4 from the regular season compete for the title and the highest European places. In 2025-26 they kept all of their points.
- Europe play-offs: the teams ranked 5th to 8th play for the remaining Conference League places. In 2025-26 they started with half of their regular-season points.
- Relegation play-outs: the bottom 6 play relegation play-outs (10 matches each in 2025-26). Two clubs were relegated in 2025-26; the number can change under the regulations.
- European places (2026-27 entries from the 2025-26 season): the champion and the runner-up in the Champions League (the champion through the play-off round, the runner-up through the third qualifying round), the third-placed club and the cup winner in the Europa League, and the fourth-placed club in the Conference League.
The structure (14 clubs, 26 matchdays, play-offs and play-outs) is described for 2026-27; the rule on points kept or halved is the 2025-26 one and is not confirmed for 2026-27. Regulations can change, so check the official sources for the current season.
What makes these matches distinctive to analyse
In 2025-26 the Super League produced 606 goals in 236 matches, an average of 2.57 goals per match. It is a benchmark for estimating the expected goals in a match, to be set against the context of the two teams: playing style, form, absences and what is at stake.
Home advantage exists: in the same season 97 of 236 matches (41%) ended in a home win, 67 (28%) in a draw and 72 (31%) in an away win. Draws accounted for more than one match in four. It is a league-wide average for a single season, and it varies from one ground and one club to the next.
The big particularity is the two-phase format: after matchday 26 the league splits into three groups (of 4, 4 and 6 clubs) with different stakes. A championship play-off match, a Europe play-off match and a relegation play-out match carry neither the same pressure nor the same priorities, which matters when reading motivation and team selection. The number of matches after the split is also much smaller, leaving little room for error.
| Indicator | 2025-26 season |
|---|---|
| Matches played | 236 |
| Goals scored | 606 |
| Average goals per match | 2.57 |
| Home wins | 97 (41%) |
| Draws | 67 (28%) |
| Away wins | 72 (31%) |
Source: English Wikipedia season pages for 2025-26; the home / draw / away split is calculated from the published scores. Figures are from a completed season and are a guide only.
How Prediction AI analyses a match in the Greek Super League
For every match in this league, the analysis rests on the same core elements:
- Recent form: results, goals scored and conceded, at home and away.
- Absences and returns: injuries, suspensions and likely starters, separating what is confirmed from what is probable.
- Head-to-head record: the history between the two sides, put in context (former squads, earlier seasons).
- Referee: the profile of the official when one has been appointed; if not, it is shown as unknown, with no invented statistics.
- 1X2 probabilities: an estimate for a home win, a draw and an away win.
- Goals: an estimate of expected goals and of how likely a low- or high-scoring match is.
- Likely scorers: the players most likely to score, based on their role and playing time.
These probabilities are uncertain estimates: a favourite can lose and a model can be wrong. They help you read a match; they guarantee no result.
FAQ: three factual questions
How many clubs and matchdays are there in the Greek Super League?
In 2026-27, 14 clubs play 26 regular-season matchdays (two rounds of 13), followed by the championship play-offs (4 clubs), the Europe play-offs (5th to 8th) and the relegation play-outs (bottom 6).
How do the play-offs work in Greece?
After the regular season the top 4 play the championship play-offs; the clubs ranked 5th to 8th play play-offs for the remaining Conference League places. In 2025-26 the former kept all their points and the latter half.
How many clubs are relegated from the Super League?
The bottom 6 play the relegation play-outs. In 2025-26 two clubs were relegated to Super League 2; the number can change under the regulations.
About Prediction AI
Prediction AI is a predictive sports analysis platform powered by artificial intelligence. To see how it works and what subscriptions are available, take a look at the Prediction AI plans. Analyses are provided for information only, with no promise of any result.
Further reading
- Expected Goals (xG), Over/Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: Understanding the Indicators
- The Factors That Influence a Football Match and How to Weigh Them Cautiously
- The Prediction AI Method: How a Match Analysis Is Produced, in Full Transparency
- How to Read a Win, Draw or Loss Probability (1X2)