Does playing at home really give a football team an edge? Yes, and it is one of the most thoroughly documented effects in sport. But it is smaller than many people assume, it varies from league to league and it has shrunk over the long term. Here is what the research and the 2025-26 numbers say, and how a forecasting model takes it into account.
What is home advantage?
Home advantage is the tendency for teams to get stronger results, on average, when they play at their own ground than when they travel. Researchers often measure it as the share of all league points won by the home sides: if the venue made no difference, that share would be 50%.
A universal effect, but a declining one
Home advantage exists everywhere. Richard Pollard and Miguel Ángel Gómez measured it in 157 national leagues over six seasons (2006 to 2012), a total of 169,752 matches: it appears on every continent, with large differences. It is especially high in the Andes, the Balkans, West Africa and Central America, and low in the Baltic states. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bolivia or Ghana, home sides take 70 to 80% of the points; in Nigeria, close to 87%.
Over the long run, the trend is downwards. A study by R. and G. Pollard of English professional football from 1888 to 2003 found that home advantage declined over the last two decades studied.
The natural experiment of empty stadiums
The Covid-19 pandemic created an unprecedented test: from spring 2020, and for much of the 2020-21 season, many leagues played without spectators.
- McCarrick and colleagues (2021) analysed 4,844 matches from 15 leagues in 11 European countries. Home advantage, measured through goals and points, fell significantly behind closed doors, mainly because home teams performed worse: they created fewer attacking chances. Referee bias in their favour also shrank.
- Bryson and colleagues (2021) found that, without a crowd, referees showed fewer yellow cards to away teams, which narrowed the disciplinary gap separating home and away sides.
The cautious conclusion: crowds matter, but they do not explain everything, and studies do not all agree on how much comes from the players and how much from the referee.
The 2025-26 numbers by league
In the most recent complete season, home advantage remained visible in Europe's five major leagues and in Greece, but with wide differences.
| League | Matches | Home wins | Draws | Away wins | Share of points won at home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League (England) | 380 | 162 (42.6%) | 104 (27.4%) | 114 (30.0%) | 56.9% |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 306 | 141 (46.1%) | 75 (24.5%) | 90 (29.4%) | 59.1% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 380 | 148 (38.9%) | 99 (26.1%) | 133 (35.0%) | 52.2% |
| LaLiga (Spain) | 380 | 186 (48.9%) | 93 (24.5%) | 101 (26.6%) | 62.2% |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | 306 | 134 (43.8%) | 75 (24.5%) | 97 (31.7%) | 56.6% |
| Five major leagues combined | 1,752 | 771 (44.0%) | 446 (25.5%) | 535 (30.5%) | 57.4% |
| Super League (Greece) | 236 | 97 (41.1%) | 67 (28.4%) | 72 (30.5%) | 55.9% |
Sources: English-language Wikipedia pages for the 2025-26 seasons, based on published scores. Share of points won at home: our calculation (3 points per win).
Across the 1,752 matches of the five major leagues, home sides won 44.0% of games, against 30.5% for visiting teams; they took about 57% of the points. The gap separating LaLiga (almost 49% home wins) from Serie A (39%) is clear, but a single season is still a limited sample.
Where does home advantage come from?
- The crowd. The most studied factor: empty stadiums showed that its absence reduces the advantage, notably because the home side attacks less.
- Travel. Pollard and Gómez found a stronger advantage when the maximum distance separating clubs is large and when at least two teams play at altitude; it is weaker when most clubs come from the same city.
- Refereeing. Research on matches behind closed doors points to a slight bias in favour of the home side, sensitive to the crowd and mostly visible in fouls and cards.
- Familiarity and territory. Knowing your own stadium, pitch and pre-match routine is often put forward as an explanation. Pollard links the large differences across countries to territorial behaviour, but this effect remains hard to measure on its own.
These causes combine: in the 157-league study, the variables retained explain only 43% of the differences across countries.
How a forecasting model accounts for it
In classic goal models, home advantage usually takes the form of a coefficient that raises the expected goals of the home side, the same for every club in a league. The resulting win, draw and loss probabilities therefore lean towards the home team when the two sides are evenly matched. To read these probabilities, see our guide on how to read 1X2 probabilities; to place the venue alongside form, absences or fixture congestion, see the factors that influence a football match.
The limits
- An average effect, not a rule. A home bonus says nothing precise about a given match: in 2025-26, almost one match in three in the major leagues was won by the visiting side.
- An effect that changes. It varies with the country, the era, the presence of a crowd and the schedule; a fixed figure soon goes out of date.
How Prediction AI factors in home advantage
Prediction AI is an AI-powered predictive sports analysis platform. For each match, the tool first checks, through web research, which team is actually at home and at which stadium: if the order entered is reversed, it corrects the home team and flags it. It then gathers each team's last five official matches, noting for each one whether it was played at home or away, and calculates form and average goals scored and conceded over those matches, all venues combined.
The AI model receives this file, in which the home team is clearly identified, and takes it into account in its probabilities: home advantage is one factor among others, weighed against form and the level of each team.
Frequently asked questions
How big is home advantage in football?
In 2025-26, across Europe's five major leagues, the home side won 44% of matches, against 30.5% for the away side, and took about 57% of the points.
Did home advantage disappear in matches behind closed doors?
It fell significantly. Across 4,844 matches in 15 European leagues, McCarrick and colleagues observed a decline driven mainly by weaker performances from home teams, along with reduced referee bias.
Is home advantage the same in every league?
No. It is stronger in the Balkans or the Andes and weaker in the Baltic states, according to Pollard and Gómez. Over one season, differences across leagues can also come down to chance.
These figures describe average trends: they help estimate probabilities, without announcing the outcome of any match.
Further reading
- Likely goalscorers: how AI estimates the chance that a player scores
- Expected Goals (xG), Over/Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: Understanding the Indicators
- The Factors That Influence a Football Match and How to Weigh Them Cautiously
- The Prediction AI Method: How a Match Analysis Is Produced, in Full Transparency
- How to Read a Win, Draw or Loss Probability (1X2)
- Correct Score and AI: Why It Is the Most Uncertain Forecast and How a Model Estimates It
Analysis by league
- Botola Pro: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Bundesliga: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Cyprus First Division: Match Analysis, Probabilities, Stats
- LaLiga: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Ligue 1: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Premier League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Serie A: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Greek Super League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Stats
- Africa Cup of Nations 2027: Format, Schedule and Match Analysis
- UEFA Champions League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- UEFA Europa League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics
- Saudi Pro League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics