Saudi Pro League: Match Analysis, Probabilities and Statistics

Analyst studying football match data

The Saudi Pro League, known as the Roshn Saudi League for sponsorship reasons, is the top tier of professional football in Saudi Arabia. With players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Ivan Toney and Julián Quiñones, its matches draw an audience far beyond the Gulf. This page explains the 2026-27 format, gives some key figures from 2025-26 and shows how Prediction AI analyses a match in the league. It deliberately contains no table or fixture list: that data changes every matchweek, so check the league’s official site, spl.com.sa.

Competition format, 2026-27 season

Clubs: 18 clubs, made up of the top 15 from last season and 3 promoted from the second tier: Abha (second-tier champions), Al-Faisaly and Al-Diriyah, who won the promotion play-offs and are new to the top flight.
Matchweeks: each club plays the other 17 home and away, which makes 34 matchweeks and 306 matches. The season kicked off on 13 August 2026 and is due to end on 29 May 2027.
2027 Asian Cup: the calendar allows for FIFA international windows and for Saudi Arabia hosting the 2027 AFC Asian Cup, which means a pause in the middle of the season.
Relegation: the bottom three go down to the second tier. In 2025-26 they were Al-Najma, Al-Okhdood and Damac.
Tie-breakers: clubs level on points are separated first by points won in their head-to-head matches, then by goal difference and goals scored in those same matches. That is a notable difference from the Premier League, where overall goal difference comes first.
Continental football: the leading clubs target the AFC Champions League Elite, the AFC Champions League Two and the Gulf Club Champions League. The number of places depends on AFC rules and the domestic cups, so check it for the current season.

2025-26 season: the figures worth knowing

The 2025-26 title went down to the final matchday on 21 May 2026. Al-Nassr beat Damac 4-1 and finished on 86 points, two clear of Al-Hilal, for the club’s first league title since 2019. The finish showed how much the rules matter: had the two sides ended level on points, the head-to-head record would have favoured Al-Hilal, so Al-Nassr had to win their last match.

The Golden Boot race was just as tight: Julián Quiñones (Al-Qadsiah) took it with 33 goals, ahead of Ivan Toney (Al-Ahli, 32 goals) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr, 28 goals).

Statistically, the Saudi Pro League is a high-scoring competition: more than 900 goals were scored in 306 matches, roughly 3 goals per match, compared with 2.75 in the Premier League the same season. Draws were relatively rare, fewer than one in four. Home advantage is real, but a third of matches ended in an away win.

Indicator	2025-26 season
Matches played	306
Average goals per match	about 3
Home wins	135 (44%)
Draws	70 (23%)
Away wins	101 (33%)

Source: spl.com.sa, Reuters and the English Wikipedia page for the 2025-26 season; the home / draw / away split is calculated from the published results grid. Figures are from a completed season and are a guide only.

What makes these matches distinctive to analyse

High scoring averages: at about 3 goals per match in 2025-26, the probability of more than 2.5 goals starts from a higher base than in the Premier League. It still has to be adjusted for the style and form of the two teams.
Very different squads: the clubs used to the top of the table share the league with newly promoted sides, so 1X2 probabilities can be heavily one-sided without ever becoming certainties.
Continental fixtures: several clubs also play in AFC competitions, which means long trips and squad rotation.
Decisive players: a handful of forwards score a large share of the goals. An injury or a suspension changes how a match should be read.
Club names: spellings vary (Al-Hilal, Al Hilal and so on). Adding the match date helps the analysis find the right fixture.

How Prediction AI analyses a Saudi Pro League match

You type in the two teams, with names suggested as you type, and the match date if you know it. The analysis then works in two steps. First, a web search gathers the verifiable facts about the match: date, ground, which side is at home, recent results, league position and absences. Then the artificial intelligence estimates the probabilities from that file of facts. For every match, the analysis covers:

Recent form: each side’s last five competitive matches in all competitions, with goals scored and conceded per match, clean sheets and matches in which both teams scored.
League position and absences: where each club stands and which key players are injured or suspended.
Head-to-head record: the most recent meetings of the two sides, all the more useful here because they also settle ties at the end of the season.
Key players: goals, assists and availability of the most decisive players this season.
Referee: once appointed, their average cards and penalties per game; otherwise the referee is shown as not yet appointed, with no invented statistics.
Probabilities: home win, draw and away win (1X2), over or under 2.5 goals, both teams to score, the most likely scoreline, likely scorers and the probability of more than 4.5 cards.
Three forecasts: from the most cautious to the boldest, each with its probability, together with a data-quality rating and the assumptions made where information is missing.

These probabilities are uncertain estimates: a favourite can lose and a model can be wrong. To interpret them properly, read our guide how to read 1X2 probabilities. They help you read a match; they do not replace the context or your own judgement.

FAQ: three factual questions

How many clubs and matchweeks are there in the Saudi Pro League?

In 2026-27 the Saudi Pro League has 18 clubs and 34 matchweeks, or 306 matches, from 13 August 2026 to 29 May 2027.

How are clubs level on points separated?

By the points won in their head-to-head matches, then by goal difference and goals scored in those matches.

Who were the 2025-26 Saudi champions?

Al-Nassr, with 86 points, two more than Al-Hilal. The title was decided on the final matchday, 21 May 2026.

About Prediction AI

Prediction AI is a predictive sports analysis platform powered by artificial intelligence. To see how it works and what subscriptions are available, take a look at the Prediction AI plans. Analyses are provided for information only, with no promise of any result.