Italy vs France is played on Thursday 12 November 2026 at San Siro in Milan, in the UEFA Nations League (Group A1). It is the game that can reopen the race for first place: France lead, Italy are 3 points behind. Here is the data that matters before kick-off, as a prediction model reads it.
The Group A1 table
| Pos | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3-1-0 | 7-2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2-1-1 | 8-5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2-0-2 | 6-5 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0-0-4 | 2-11 | 0 |
Source: ESPN, 2026-28 Nations League table on 10 November 2026.
What is at stake: a win takes Italy level with France on 10 points. A draw keeps France 3 points clear. On Sunday 15 November Italy then play in Belgium, while France host Türkiye in Bordeaux.
Nations League results
Italy: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- 25/9: Italy 0-2 Belgium
- 28/9: Türkiye 1-4 Italy
- 2/10: France 1-1 Italy
- 5/10: Italy 3-1 Türkiye
France: 3 wins, 1 draw
- 25/9: Türkiye 0-1 France
- 28/9: Belgium 0-1 France
- 2/10: France 1-1 Italy
- 5/10: France 4-1 Belgium
Source: ESPN results pages of both national teams.
What the data says
- Italy have the best attack in the group (8 goals in 4 games), but lost 0-2 at home to Belgium: San Siro is no guarantee.
- France concede very little: just 2 goals in 4 games, and they are still unbeaten. Away from home they won twice 1-0, in tight games.
- The first meeting ended 1-1 in France on 2 October: the two sides have already cancelled each other out once.
- Two opposite styles: Italy score more, France control better. Whoever sets the tempo in the first half will have an edge.
The trend: on this data the game is very even. France start slightly ahead thanks to their defence, Italy have home advantage and an attack in form. Nothing is certain: a game like this often turns on one moment, a set piece or a red card. The exact 1X2 percentages and the analysis with the latest team news are calculated in the app.
What to check before kick-off
- The official line-ups, announced shortly before the game.
- Absences and injuries announced by both federations.
- The official kick-off time on the UEFA website.
Frequently asked questions
When do Italy play?
Italy play France on Thursday 12 November 2026 at San Siro, then Belgium away at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels on Sunday 15 November 2026, both in the Nations League.
Where is Italy vs France played?
At San Siro in Milan.
How did the last France vs Italy end?
On 2 October 2026, in France, it ended 1-1.
Who are the favourites?
The data points to an even game, with France slightly ahead on defence. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties: see our guide how reliable is an AI match prediction? On the weight of playing at home: home advantage in football.
Match probabilities on Prediction AI
Prediction AI is an AI-powered predictive sports analysis platform: for every match it gives 1X2 probabilities and an analysis based on the latest data, for national teams and for Serie A. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties. See the plans, with a 7-day money-back guarantee on the first payment.